Casino Gambling and Engaging Your Brain
2/10/11
In this article we are looking as some ways in which human thinking is flawed and how thinking in that way can detrimentally affect the way we gamble and have a negative impact on our bankroll. These errors in thinking can result in a number of gambling paradoxes.
We will look at how people mistakenly assign rules to sequences of numbers when there are none, or if there are rules they get them wrong. This can be very important in a large number of games from roulette through to card games such as blackjack.
Firstly we will ask you to guess the rule that results in the sequence of numbers 4, 6, 8. In fact in this case there is a rule; your job is to guess what it is by choosing other sequences of three numbers and seeing if they obey the rule. Please answer this before reading any further.
Most people when given this challenge come up with an answer such as three numbers which are even and increase by two every time. They then go and pick sequences such as 16, 18, 20 in order to confirm their thinking. The error in this way of thinking is they are not properly engaging their brain, for the only way to test their theory (the above stated rule) is by disproving it.
If you came up with that rule, then you were incorrect. The actual rule is any three numbers in ascending order. If you have not discovered that then you are not alone. Very few people do, although it is the simplest rule possible to create the sequence.
What people do is add degrees of complexity which are not required and so ignore the obvious. They are then so enamoured by what they think is the truth that they shut out all other data and reasoning. They seek information to confirm their thoughts rather than to question them.
Thinking this way encourages people to seek patterns where none are to be found, for instance in spins of the roulette wheel, how to influence the dealers third card in blackjack, and many other false assumptions. Only by ridding ourselves of these false assumptions can we gamble optimally.
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